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@MJosephSheppard → Right And Left See GOP Doomed In 2016 Presidential Race – But, So What If True?

11 May 2015 @ 20:04


On the same day both rightist Allahpundit Hot Air (“Depressing reminder: The 2016 election will be decided by seven states — and Florida is an absolute must-win”) and more than somewhat leftist Dylan Beyers at Politico (“Hillary Clinton’s Election To Lose”) come to the (somewhat) same conclusion. This is, basically, that the GOP has a very difficult chance, if indeed it has any chance at all, of winning the 2016 presidential campaign.

They are very late to the party-I set this out in American Thinker back in December 2014 when I suggested that perhaps the only chance for the GOP in 2016 would be to run New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez as the VP candidate. Larry Sabato is not only even later to the party, but uses the same electoral map source as I do plus graphs, but overwhelms with ten of them. But the conclusion is the same -seven states for the ring and the difficulty for the GOP of grasping it.
After canvassing the absolute necessity for the 2016 standard bearer to win Florida-it is game over right from the start if it is lost, I set out the further task for the GOP even if the state is won:
“The problem for the GOP is that winning Florida is only the start of a path to the required 270 Electoral College votes, and the path is long, tortuous and extremely narrow. Presuming North Carolina has returned to the GOP’s fold, and the narrow 2012 loss in Ohio is overcome the major stumbling block is the vital 13 votes of Virginia. 
Once considered safe in the bosom of  the “solid south” Virginia has seen an influx of Democratic voters into the northern region of the state. So substantial has this influx been that Virginia has been solid blue for the last two elections.”
But, and as Hot Air and Byers came to realize, even with those states the GOP would have to win one from Iowa Colorado New Mexico or Nevada. New Mexico has gone once for the GOP in the last five elections, Iowa once in the last seven elections and Nevada twice in the last six including going for Obama twice as did Colorado.
All that is moot of course if any one of Florida/Virginia and Ohio go to Clinton and the odds on Virginia, at least, being in the Dem’s bag are pretty high given the influx into the Northern part of the state and having gone for Obama twice.
In case Republicans are getting their hopes up about polls now showing Jeb Bush and others, beating Hillary in New Hampshire, even if they won that state and Colorado it still would not be enough to win the Electoral College
There are a number of reason for this state of affairs and of course the primary one is that ethnicity trumps all for the foreseeable future. Democratic party voters are jammed into new York, California and Pennsylvania which gives the party a lock on 104 of the 270 electoral College votes required to win. Add in all of New England, the greater Great Lakes states and the Pacific Northwest and that’s that. With Virginia they don’t even need Ohio or Colorado or Nevada!
Is there any hope for the GOP apart from the scenario that Clinton stumbles or there is a massive market crash just before the election like in 2008? Yes and demographics can help.The drift from the north to the south has seen the GOP gain about 6 Electoral College votes after the last census with Texas and Florida benefiting especially. If this continues then in effect,  post the next census, Electoral College votes equivalent to Virginia’s thirteen will have gone into the GOP’s column . In a tight election that may be all the difference.
However that may be a short term advantage as, if the drift south starts turning usually reliable red states to blue then, most certainly, the GOP is effectively doomed (if Texas goes then it’s lights out) at the national level barring cataclysmic events.
In that case the GOP would suffer the fate of the Democratic Party from 1860 to 1932 where it won four elections out of eighteen, and perhaps only became presidentially electorally viable again because of the cataclysmic and nation changing 1929 crash. Did the party disappear? Of course not, it enjoyed massive regional control and, from time to time, Congressional control of one or both Houses of Congress.
Sine 2008, The Democratic Party’s presidential success has not been matched at the congressional, state or local levels. The Republicans have seen a massive, near unprecedented swing to them since President Obama took office.
The number of GOP governors has risen from 21 to 31 since Obama took office  — just short of the all-time high of 34 Republican governors in the 1920s.

Voters have also given those governors Republican legislatures to enact their agendas. When Obama first took office, Republicans held just 3,220 state legislative seats. After Tuesday’s vote, the number stands at 4,111 — a net gain of nearly 900 seats on Obama’s watch. Thanks to the 291 state legislative seats Republicans added in 61 chambers across the country last week, there are now more Republican state legislators than at any time since 1920.

Put another way: In 2008, the GOP controlled just 36 state legislative chambers. It soon will control 69 — and voters have given the GOP total control of state government in nearly half the country. In 2008, Republicans held both the legislature and governors’ mansion in just eight states. Today, the number is 24. By contrast, Democrats now control both the legislature and governor’s office in just seven states, down from 15 before the 2014 electionAccording to the National Conference of State Legislatures, that is the lowest number of states Democrats have controlled since 1860.

“the Obama administration began with 257 House Democrats and now is down to 188, the smallest Democratic contingent in the House since 1949. In 11 states, the Democrats have no members at all.And from a high of 59 senators the Democrats now have 46.”

This effectively means the next Democratic president will be a symbolic figurehead from day one, as is President Obama since the mid-terms in 2014. Attempted rule by executive fiat will only add to the GOP’s ire and ensure more senators and congressmen, and increasingly conservative ones at that, each mid-term. Apart from foreign affairs, to a degree, and in appointing the Supreme Court judges as vacancies arise, is there a significant advantage to the Dem’s in winning the presidency.

As far as the Supreme Court goes, even that advantage can be overcome if enough state legislatures are captured by the Republicans so they can call a Constitutional Convention and take matters, economic and social, out of the hands of the Court. This is near to being effected now, and should a further swing to the conservatives in more states eventuate it would be a certainty and leave the presidency as a shining bauble.

Mr. Sheppard is the proprietor of the blogs Point Of View and Palin4President 2016. He also writes occasionally for American Thinker and is a man of refined taste. Follow him on Twitter: @MJosephSheppard.

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