@MJosephSheppard → Ted Cruz Has The Best Electoral Path To The Presidency
Compared to those candidates listed in the opinion polls as GOP candidates for president 2016 the first to actually declare, Texas Senator Ted Cruz actually has the best chance of winning in the Electoral College-which is where it counts of course.
As expected, amongst the near hysterical reaction from the left to Cruz’s candidacy is the ridiculous statement from “Daily Kos” that “Cruz would win at most 12 states.” A glance at the 2012 result for Mitt Romney shows he won 24 states-with the country so polarized, and if anything is certain in politics, a Hillary Clinton campaign is not going to “un-polarize” it, it is hard to imagine any Republican candidate going below 19 states.
A Cruz candidacy, if we use Romney’s 206 Electoral College votes result as the base for the GOP in 2016, should pass the first barrier for any Republican. That is winning Florida and its 29 Electoral College votes without which state the battle is lost before it goes any further on election night. Florida went to President Obama by under 1% because there was a small swing by Latin-American voters to him. Given Cruz’s Cuban family background it is hard to imagine the tiny deficit would not be more than made up.
The advantage for Cruz then moves to the swing states of Colorado with its 9 Electoral College votes, and Nevada with 6, both with their substantial Hispanic populations. These two, plus Florida would take Cruz to 250 votes-19 short of winning (270 are required but a tie would be decided in the Republican dominated House of Representatives).
Senator Cruz commenced his campaign with a call for Evangelicals to come out to vote in 2016. Iowa with 6 EV votes is a strong Evangelical state and, of all the candidates with a national appeal, Cruz is best placed to garner their support.
As has always been the case for Republicans Ohio then becomes the key. No Republican has been elected without winning it and in the scenario sketched out for Senator Cruz it becomes essential. If Cruz, with his message of limited government, low taxes can get the “Perot/Reagan Republicans to the polls, which Romney, perceived as an elitist did not, and why he lost Ohio narrowly, then Ohio’s 18 Electoral Votes would give Cruz 274 Electoral College votes and the presidency with a 4 to 5 seat cushion.
Yes, losing Ohio and winning Virginia would bring him to a 269 tie, but it would be better for the country not to have to go through the tortuous and possibly incendiary situation of the House deciding who is president.
The road for any Republican nominee is very hard but at this point Senator Cruz is best placed to thread the needle. Certainly Jeb Bush might win Florida but his appeal to Hispanics in Colorado/Nevada and possibly New Mexico would not be a s strong as a genuine Hispanic like Cruz-certainly Cruz would have the advantage in Iowa amongst Evangelicals.
Mr. Sheppard is the proprietor of the blogs Point Of View and Palin4President 2016. He also writes occasionally for American Thinker and is a man of refined taste. Follow him on Twitter: @MJosephSheppard.