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Nomination Excitations: Taking A Stab At Some Analysis On The Ides Of March

15 March 2012 @ 19:20

Time For Newt To Scoot?
How Can We Miss You If You Won’t Go Away?

A growing number of folks on the Right think so…

Dan Riehl from yesterday:

I backed Newt after Perry dropped and didn’t turn on him after he imploded in Florida, while also having a terrible debate. I’ve been content to watch it play out, not hitting either him, or Santorum. But all Newt can be from here on is a spoiler.

The bottom-line is, whether you back him, or not, Santorum has won himself the right to go one-on-one with Romney and settle things cleanly and once and for all. Not only will Newt begin to lose more and more friends across the conservative base by staying in – they’ll see it as his ego and Adelson’s money keeping him in – he’s likely to begin performing worse and worse, only making it all the worse for him.

By losing as he did last night, he proved he can’t win much of anywhere. His candidacy is not viable. The only honorable move left for Newt is to drop out. Do the right thing, Newt. Enough GOP primary voters have spoken that, in my opinion, the best thing Newt can do now is to show some respect for them.

-Another Gingrich supporter: Frank Gaffney from yesterday afternoon:

As Newt himself noted last night, 70 percent of the vote in the southern primaries yesterday went to conservative candidates. This attests to the deep distrust many Republicans have of Governor Romney. It also suggests that there can only be one result from Speaker Gingrich remaining in the race from this point on: He will preclude that block of voters from coalescing and forming up behind someone who would draw the sort of sharp distinctions with President Obama that Newt and his many admirers had wanted him to do, with devastating effect, in the debates this fall.

My hope is that the country will benefit in the future, as it has in the past, from Newt Gingrich’s service at the top ranks of government. This is the time, however, for him to help elect Rick Santorum, a man I feel certain would want such a brilliant and transformative figure in his administration to provide that service once again and who would, in any event, be in fundamental alignment with the former Speaker’s vision for America.

-Quin Hillyer has done the calculations and blows Newton’s math all to Hell:

Newt Gingrich seems to be making decent sense, in terms of apparent logic, in saying that by staying in the race he can help rack up enough delegates to keep Mitt Romney from winning on the first ballot at the GOP national convention. Sometimes, though, that which seems to make sense does not actually work in practice. Nomination arithmetic is different from normal arithmetic. And no, I am not talking about how he alters the “impressions game” by splitting the conservative vote and thus either handing pluralities to Romney or narrowing the margins of victory for Santorum. That is a very good argument, but that’s not at issue here. What I’m talking about here is exactly the sort of “delegate math” to which Gingrich claims to be appealing.

Do take the time to click here and see the details.

-Donald Douglas has published a report on the calls for Newton Leroy to do the honorable thing.

-In the course of responding to Gingrich supporter Bill Quick’s assertion that the posts he’s written urging Newton to get out of the race are driven by a ‘visceral hated’ of the candidate, Stacy lays out the convincing evidence that the Gingrich Campaign is living in a fantasy world if they think they can survive and win, he comments:

You can kill the messenger, but the facts are still the facts, and I do not rule out the possibility that we may be doomed to Mitt Romney. However, if conservatives were really serious when they said they wanted “Anybody But Mitt,” they must understand that their only hope now is to rally behind Rick Santorum.

-Over at The POH Diaries, TWB weighs-in:

In a word, yes. He should get out. For a while now, both Santorum and Gingrich were telling each other publicly that the other should exit the race and clear the way for a two man showdown with Mitt Romney. In all honesty the only time Gingrich could have made that argument with any credibility was after his win in South Carolina. Now? Not so much.

Santorum has taken Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi, only losing the first in the south South Carolina primary and Gingrich’s home state of Georgia.

Rick Santorum holds all the cards now. At least from the aspect of whether Newt should exit the race and clear the way for a two man race. As far as actually catching and passing Romney? That’s another story altogether.

-FYI: Over at The Corner, Brian Bolduc has done the research and found out what the Gingrich delegates already chosen are allowed to do if Newton Leroy drops out.  Thanks, Mr. Bolduc.

Willard’s World

-It’s Only Words has some good advice for Willard:

Don’t tempt fate.

Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall

Less than 24 hours after Governor Romney declared that it would take a miracle for Rick Santorum to win the nomination, Santorum pulled out, well…not a miracle, but wins in Alabama and Mississippi with Romney placing third behind Newt Gingrich.

-Tip of the fedora to Stacy McCain for that.  The IOW comes in a very good post by him, filled with tasty morsels of analysis, such as:

…there is evidence that despite all the bold talk of Romney’s “inevitability,” Team Mitt’s starting to sweat:

Romney was not planning to visit Illinois until Monday. Now, he adds a Friday morning campaign stop before flying to Puerto Rico.

Having complained bitterly about some of the Santorum campaign’s bungles, it is an undeniable fact that Santorum’s success is beginning to push the Romney campaign up against Mitt’s inherent limitations. If Santorum can keep up the pressure, it’s possible that Team Mitt could commit the kind of error that might turn the tide against Mr. Inevitable. And, regardless of what you may have heard, Romney is much weaker than the delegate-counters want to admit.


Romney’s share of the vote decreased every month, from 40.5% in January to 39.8% in February to 36.3% in March. This is not the kind of performance that you expect from a candidate capable of winning people over to his side. That spells trouble if Mitt wins the GOP nomination.

-Over at The Corner, Patrick Brennan looks at twelve of Willard’s endorsers and comments:

As the 2012 presidential race continues, Mitt Romney might hope that key endorsements will ameliorate some of his weaknesses, including perceptions that he is too moderate, or unfaithful to the Republican party, or too East Coast, too elitist, or too “establishment” — but many of his endorsers seem just as likely to confirm that impression.

One Quibble: Instead of listing Thaddeus McCotter, I would have put Chris Christie in there.

-Stacy’s developed some hard-arsed sentiments after some of Romney’s wins:

John Tabin’s note about Mitt Romney’s win in American Samoa — Mormons in Samoa? Who knew? — is proof that Ron Paul is right: The United States has paid a terrible price for its overseas expansionism, going back to the McKinley administration.

Ever since Guam went unanimously for Romney, I’ve begun to regret the U.S. victory in the Spanish-American War, just as Mitt’s win in Florida made me realize we should have left Florida to the Seminoles, the Spanish and the alligators. But while it may be too late to sell Florida back to Spain — with their debt problems, the Spanish couldn’t afford it — there’s still a chance we could rid ourselves of those pesky Pacific Island territories that keep voting for the wrong candidate.

Guam, American Samoa, the Northern Marianas Islands — sell them all to [Red] China!

Rolling Rick

-Maggie Gallagher gives us the final proof that Vin Weber has gone from being one of us to joining the Insane Clown Party.  Here’s what he said, followed by her spot-on comment:

I’ve seen Mitt Romney inspire crowds. He gets people excited about it. But Rick Santorum has a storyline going that says that he’s the only one that touches the heart and soul of the Republicans. . . .

He [Santorum] basically has no campaign. I mean that’s what people, Republicans need to understand this. There really isn’t a Santorum campaign. There’s a candidate running from state to state trying to make this emotional appeal, and it’s working with some people. It certainly will not beat President Obama in the Fall. But you know I think that Romney has shown himself capable of inspiring the folks and he can do that going forward.

The candidate “without a campaign” is beating the candidate with all the campaign apparatus and money over and over again.

‘He gets people all excited about it’?!?  Wow, Vin, thems some good prescription meds you’re on.

Hey!…Vinny Bag-O-Donuts!  The Dog Track called.  They’re waiting for ya…

-According to the Bolshevik, race hustling geniuses at MSNKVD, er, MSNBC, Rick Santorum is speaking in ‘coded langauage’, as Stacy documents here.

Let us not forget that the Left has been heavily influenced by Sigmund Fraud, er, Freud, who believed that everything we say has layers of meaning, that the surface meaning conceals a deeper, often more insidious meaning.

But, as Stacy says, Mr. Santorum drives the Left crazy and that’s a good thing [and it’s fun to watch].  Look, if Sarah Palin can’t be the one to do it, I say let RS pick up the flag and run with it.

We Interrupt This Nomination Excitations For Some News On The Hope And Change [As In Money] Front

Is Obama starting to have campaign money troubles.  Don Surber analyses the situation over at his joint.  A highlight:

How they campaign is how they govern — and vice versa. So it should come as no surprise that political pros are beginning to wonder if President Obama’s campaign is running out of money, even though he is unopposed in the Democratic primaries. Last week he brought in Bill Clinton to help him raise money. Ouch. Obama is Justin Bieber hoping to be saved by ‘N Synch.

Follow the money.

I did. Barack Obama sure is spending a lot of money: $63,236,869 through January 31.

That left him $75,953,128 in the bank.

He already has spent 45 cents of every $1 he raised.

Do take the time to click here and read the rest.

…And The Whirlwind Continues To Blow…

  1. 15 March 2012 @ 20:42 20:42

    You know, reading your account of RSM’s mischaracterization of my own positions, you’d never know that I was urging Newt to get out in favor of Santorum nearly a month ago.

    But hell, for you to know that, you’d have to actually click a link instead of mindlessly regurgitating anything Stacy says.


    • 15 March 2012 @ 22:18 22:18

      1) The only reason I mentioned you at all in that section was to give you a link. The quote that I used from Stacy has nothing to do with what was going on between you two.

      2) I will add ‘former’ before ‘Gingrich Supporter’ if you wish, but the fact remains that you were on Newt’s bandwagon, so the statement is true; I know this because I actually read your blog and enjoy it [based on Smitty’s recommendation].

      3) I will, henceforth, cease to mindlessly link you.


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