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Egypt: The Dark Side Of The Loons [Updated Below]

29 January 2011 @ 16:00

Some thoughts and such on the situation in the Land Of De Nile…

-Some of the best analysis of the situation in Egypt is coming from Stacy McCain.  He has published three postings along with many updates on the evolving situation.

In his first post, he made this spot-on point and turned to, perhaps, the man with the best wisdom on the nature of revolutions:

Of course, we cannot automatically congratulate ourselves about what wonders “democracy” would bring to Egypt, as this revolutionary moment might lead to the empowerment of Islamist radicals. Mubarak is authoritarian, but I don’t know that the average Egyptian in 2011 is any more enlightened than the average Frenchman in 1789.

“The effect of liberty to individuals is that they may do what they please; we ought to see what it will please them to do, before we risk congratulations which may be soon turned into complaints.”

– Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in France (1790)

I would submit that the average Egyptian is far less enlightened, even though Egypt has enjoyed [and I mean that word it’s most positive sense] the benefits of Western influence to a much greater extent than most of the Islamic nations of the World.  Islam does not encourage creative thinking — in fact, it heavily frowns on it because imaginative reasoning breeds a belief in thinking for oneself and questioning existing norms.  The Fascist regime in power certainly does not want the people it is trying to keep in chains from gaining enough knowledge to demand the removal of said manacles.

-This is certainly not a black hat/White hat situation – both sides are evil to some degree.  There is no likely positive outcome for The West, only the lesser of evils.  I say this because it is obvious that we have lacked the resolve to do what is right there for decades and I see no sign that most in The Western Nations understand what needs to be done – even on the Right.

-All of the evidence we have shows that the Muslim Brotherhood is the main group behind this insurrection.  The intrepid Caroline Glick offers a succinct, bang-on primer for us on this scandelously-underreported organization [emphasis mine]:

…This group, which forms the largest and best organized opposition movement to the Mubarak regime is the progenitor of Hamas and al Qaida. It seeks Egypt’s transformation into an Islamic regime that will stand at the forefront of the global jihad. In recent years, the Muslim Brotherhood has been increasingly drawn into the Iranian nexus along with Hamas. Muslim Brotherhood attorneys represented Hizbullah terrorists arrested in Egypt in 2009 for plotting to conduct spectacular attacks aimed at destroying the regime.

-The only important question is: what is the outcome that will benefit The United States and it’s security.  It should be noted that making this statement does not ignore the concern about protecting Israel.  Whatever is best for us in this case, is best for Israel, thankfully.  At least it seems that way, although Stacy does make this interesting point:

Israel reportedly is worried about “regime change” in Egypt, and I think rightly so. Yet what is better for Israel: A corrupt authoritarian regime in Egypt constantly struggling to suppress an outlaw terrorist subculture or that terrorist subculture seizing power in Egypt and declaring itself an open enemy of Israel? I trust if the latter scenario were to play out, the Israeli military would prove itself abundantly capable of meeting any attack that an Islamist Egyptian regime might make. So having the Egyptian radicals seize power might actually make matters simpler for Israel, militarily and diplomatically.

That brings to mind Chesty Puller’s famous statement that I have used to describe the attitude we Wolverines should adopt: ‘We’re surrounded; that simplifies the situation’.

-Many on the Left, as will not surprise you, are cheering the insurrectionists on, but so are some on the Right.  In another posting Stacy makes this point:

…the question isn’t merely who is wielding batons, but against whom the batons are being wielded.

Exactly.

The Left supports revolution for the sake of revolution.  After all, one of the cornerstones of their philosophy is that, before their schemes can be implemented, every cornerstone must be torn down.  One expects more adult thinking from those on the Right.  However, so infected have all of us become with the virus that is Leftist thinking, so deeply has it been absorbed, we Americans reflexively support any overthrow of tyrannical regimes.  There’s a reason conservatives value the ancient wisdom, ‘be careful what you wish for…’: a conservative, by definition is someone who is very, very wary of sudden, dramatic change — let alone change accompanied by violence.  Revolution, in and of itself, is a bad thing because it always involves tearing down and destruction.  Take a deep breath.

-However this plays out, I think it safe to bet that The Administration will do the wrong thing.  While I do not believe that Obama is a Muslim, I have no doubt that, as a committed Leftist, he is very sympathetic to the aspirations of the Mohammedins.  As people like David Horowitz and others have pointed out for years: the Left and Islam have a lot in common in their thinking and methods [see: Big Lie, The].  But Obama has a problem, as David Graham* points out:

Despite the fact that he personally applauds what [the Muslim Brotherhood] is doing — and any mohammedans — he also doesn’t want to lose power to them and doesn’t know how to prevent that, just as he doesn’t know how to do anything else except loot, live high and squander. [The Muslim Brotherhood] is on to him, they’re forcing him where he doesn’t want to go (subservience to them), they have read his profile and figure they can roll over him. They’re right.

Indeed, Barack The Unready may not even understand that he’s being grifted — those who are convinced that they possess superior intelligence [and have had that notion reinforced by their friends are always easy marks.  I share Stacy McCain’s pessimism:

…Even in a situation like this — where the U.S. seems confronted by a choice between “bad” and “worse” — my hunch is that whatever Obama does will turn out to be disastrous.

Yup.

-If the Muslim Brotherhood or any other Jihadists take power in Egypt, we and Israel face a significantly enhanced military threat from the Mohammedins, as Mrs. Glick points out:

And of course, giving up the Sinai wasn’t the only sacrifice Israel made for that nearly defunct document. Israel also gave up its regional monopoly on US military platforms. Israel agreed that in exchange for signing the deal, the US would begin providing massive military aid to Egypt. Indeed, it agreed to link US aid to Israel with US aid to Egypt.

Owing to that US aid, the Egyptian military today makes the military Israel barely defeated in 1973 look like a gang of cavemen. Egypt has nearly 300 F-16s. Its main battle tank is the M1A1 which it produces in Egypt. Its navy is largest in the region. Its army is twice the size of the IDF. Its air defense force constitutes a massive threat to the IAF. And of course, the ballistic missiles and chemical weapons it has purchased from the likes of North Korea and China give it a significant stand-off mass destruction capability.

Here we have the unintended consequences of the horrible agreement Jimmy Carter brokered [and which I thought a good thing until only recently].  The majority of us praised this act of naiveté, we gave peace a chance.  Live and learn — if we survive.

-There are two ‘positive’ things to remember if the MB triumphs, as David points out:

I wish the MB well in Egypt and elsewhere, even here, because, as the reports coming back from Iraq and AFPAK have long observed, once these bad actors — who BTW are not good fighters (the Arabs, Afghans are pretty good fighters but only at ambushes and against irresolution) — put up their heads, they get them blown off. I’m glad MB has decided now is the time to roll. It puts them in the open — see how the media, who doesn’t want to mention them for all the reasons you well know — is having to talk about them, describe them. That’s good, blows the cover off the media as well. And shows [the White House] and State Dept. caught by surprise, slackers, buffoons. Once MB are in the open, they are easy targets and get shot.

Perhaps, finally, the Western World will wake-up from it’s peacful, self-imposed oblivious slumber and see the true nature of Islam, that it’s goal is to utterly destroy us.  Perhaps, finally, we will come to understand just how ill-suited and empty-suited Leftism is in practice in the Real World.  Perhaps…before it is too late.

Luckily, as David points out, the Arabs are bad fighters in modern warfare…hey, that’s something.

-The Lonely Conservative has a good posting up on how the Iranians [surprise] are cheering on the insurrectionists and on the possible implications of the situation in the on-fire Middle East on our gas prices.  Oh joy [and, hey, our food prices are rising, too].

-I can Feel The Fear In The Western World.

UPDATE at 1649…

Major Steven Givler was kind enough to leave some thoughts in the comments based upon his wide-knowledge of The Middle East.  I quote them in full:

Don’t forget how well entrenched the Muslim Brotherhood is here in the United States. They are the major source of power behind CAIR.

You’re right to question how freedom will be put to use by those fighting in the streets for it right now. When I first began visiting Egypt in 1986, I would have been hopeful that the average Egyptian, given liberty, would have looked to America as a model. In the last decade and a half though, Egypt has taken a dramatic turn toward repressive Islam, as evidenced by violence against Copts and open harassment of women who do not choose to veil themselves. I fear that liberty now, will be seen as an opportunity to impose an even more repressive regime upon Egyptians than that under which they have been suffering. For a glimpse of the future, they need only look to Iran.

It’s true that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt publicly relinquished its goal of instituting an Islamic state, but one needs only read Qutb’s “Milestones” to know that goals and doctrine are to be revealed in stages. We are most likely about to witness the emergence of a new stage of Muslim Brotherhood aspirations, wherein, having judged the time to be appropriate, they will make their move to take control.

It’s worth noticing also that, while al Qaeda has always considered Shia to be apostates, the Brotherhood has tried in the past to minimize the Sunni/Shia differences. They believe that they will be overcome in a truly Islamic state.

Since neither the Shia in Iran nor the Muslim Brotherhood (nor al Qaeda, for that matter) have ever managed to develop a truly workable method of * governance, though, it’s unlikely they’ll be proven right in that regard.

*No, I don’t consider the mess in Iran to be a workable method of governance.

Thank you, Steven.

UPDATE at 2351…

-Stacy has up another posting on the events in The Land Of The Pharaohs.  Many of the Neo-Cons are optimistic.  I share Stace’s disquiet and worry:

Donald Douglas is clearly in the neocon optimist camp and cites a Wall Street Journal editorial that I’m not sure makes his point:

Our stake in Egypt is not in any one ruler but in a transition from dictatorship to a more stable representative government that can better meet the aspirations of Egyptians.

See, my concern is that the “aspirations of Egyptians” might include such agenda items as “Death to the Zionist entity!” and “Down with the Great Satan!” Perhaps I remember 1979 too well.

I remember it very well — the phrase ‘seared into my memory’ comes to mind.

-If you need a break from following this story and you’re a gentleman, Dame Maggie has some Egyptian gals featured in her Rule 5 entry this week over at Maggie’s Notebook.  I know many of you will join me in volunteering to personally see that they are.

UPDATED on 30JAN2011 at 1809…

-Stacy McCain has published another good aggregation posting along with his usual bang-on analysis.  A highlight:

…We know that the Left’s guiding principle in foreign policy is to support our enemies and attack our allies, so perhaps Mubarak could save himself by striking a pose of anti-Americanism, maybe buddying up to Hugo Chavez or blaming the protests in Cairo on the Mossad and the CIA.

Hey, it’s worked for others.  Why not?  Barry won’t mind since he does it himself.

-Over at Pajamasmedia, Michael Ledeen pulls no punches:

And that’s the final similarity with 1979: the wrong American in the wrong job at a crucial time. Let’s hope that the Almighty truly does protect the blind, the drunk, and the United States of America.

It’s even better to be lucky than to be smart.

Luck be a Nancy-Boy tonight.

______________________________
* David and I have been privately
corresponding on this situation and he
has been kind enough to allow me to
quote from his missives.

14 Comments
  1. 29 January 2011 @ 16:43 16:43

    Don’t forget how well entrenched the Muslim Brotherhood is here in the United States. They are the major source of power behind CAIR.

    You’re right to question how freedom will be put to use by those fighting in the streets for it right now. When I first began visiting Egypt in 1986, I would have been hopeful that the average Egyptian, given liberty, would have looked to America as a model. In the last decade and a half though, Egypt has taken a dramatic turn toward repressive Islam, as evidenced by violence against Copts and open harassment of women who do not choose to veil themselves. I fear that liberty now, will be seen as an opportunity to impose an even more repressive regime upon Egyptians than that under which they have been suffering. For a glimpse of the future, they need only look to Iran.

    It’s true that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt publicly relinquished its goal of instituting an Islamic state, but one needs only read Qutb’s “Milestones” to know that goals and doctrine are to be revealed in stages. We are most likely about to witness the emergence of a new stage of Muslim Brotherhood aspirations, wherein, having judged the time to be appropriate, they will make their move to take control.

    It’s worth noticing also that, while al Qaeda has always considered Shia to be apostates, the Brotherhood has tried in the past to minimize the Sunni/Shia differences. They believe that they will be overcome in a truly Islamic state.

    Since neither the Shia in Iran nor the Muslim Brotherhood (nor al Qaeda, for that matter) have ever managed to develop a truly workable method of * governance, though, it’s unlikely they’ll be proven right in that regard.

    *No, I don’t consider the mess in Iran to be a workable method of governance.

    Sorry to go on so long Bob. I feel better now.

  2. 29 January 2011 @ 16:56 16:56

    HI Bob. This is an awful situation, and I’m convinced barry the buffon had a big hand in creating it. Also, his BFF’s Ayers & Dohrn along with code pinko’s were there about a year ago! Coincidence? I think not.
    I hope you are feeling better & have a nice weekend.

  3. Adobe Walls permalink
    29 January 2011 @ 19:26 19:26

    I don’t think there is any upside to these events other than what I wrote the other day.
    After ( not when) the radicals take over Egypt our Government will bend over back wards to treat the new regime as a civilized member of the world community. This will lead to disaster for Israel. Many still remember the hostage crises in Iran and are still angry. While still awaiting our opportunity for payback on the one hand I recognize what a tremendous favor taking our Embassy was. That act ended all of the many levels of military, diplomatic and economic contacts that had developed between Iran and most of the west. The Islamists who take over Egypt won’t squander those assets. Diplomatic immunity, student exchanges the right to immigrate to America and passports for non Egyptian terrorists given out like candy.

    “However this plays out, I think it safe to bet that The Administration will do the wrong thing.”

    We can bet our lives on that, no doubt our Government will….. or has.

  4. 30 January 2011 @ 01:31 01:31

    I am a dreadful pessimist on this situation. We can’t get past the fact that Egypt is 90% Sunni Muslim. Democracy will not happen. I am close to the position of saying let the people choose their way. It is their right, no matter what. They have to know what the Muslim Brotherhood is. Having said that, I doubt they will get more than Mubarak leaving, and they have said they do not want the government to go, just Mubarak.

    Whatever happens, I propose defunding the entire Middle East and backing Israel in a mighty way. I agree with Stacy, they can take care of themselves with our backing. They have certainly done it in the past. Love the Chesty Puller quote:-)

    Thanks much for the link Bob. You are linked in tomorrow’s News and Views at my place.

  5. KingShamus permalink
    30 January 2011 @ 15:01 15:01

    I heard this somewhere–can’t remember where, sorry–and it made some sense.

    If the Muslims Brotherhood gets control, Israel will be faced with a mortal enemy at it’s border. Like that’s never happened before [sarc/]. As it stands now, the Mubarak/military government does a half-assed job of tamping down the psycho elements of it’s populace.

    If the MB gets power, Israel won’t have to play nice in the sandbox with a regime that sorta tolerates/sorta hates the Israelis. Instead, Netanyahu & Co. will be dealing with an outright hostile state. Being enemies–as opposed to the current ‘frenemies’ situation–would simplify things between Israel and Egypt.

    That’s a mighty thin reed to cling to at the moment, but it’s something.

  6. bobbelvedere permalink*
    30 January 2011 @ 15:44 15:44

    Adobe: In a way, I am hoping the Egyptian Military can hold onto the reigns of power, but, then again, I thought the Shah’s Army would.

    Dame Maggie: If the Egyptian Military can’t hold out and the government is toppled, I think a democracy will be formed. Said democratic government is the perfect vehicle for the Jihadists to gain power and seem legitimate. This is another reason why I despise democracy – the mob rules, and in Egypt the mob is controlled by the various Jihadist groups.

    Your Majesty: I tend to agree with you [and so would Chesty Puller – a great man]. Clarity is a wonderful thing.

    All: What will become of the antiquities if the Jihadists come to power? I’ve often said half-jokingly that the Iconoclasts in Byzantium were the first Mohammedins.

  7. 30 January 2011 @ 15:52 15:52

    Bob, I’m working on a post about “democracy” and the fact Egypt is already considered (by virtue of their legal name) a Republic. I notice this throughout Islamic countries – they love attaching “Republic” or “Democratic Republic” to their names.

    Yes, Democracy is the perfect vehicle for the Brotherhood to come to power.

    BTW, I just heard Dan Gillerman on Fox. He said the MB taking power would be devastating. He wants no part of it – nothing sanguine about his opinion on this.

  8. 31 January 2011 @ 12:38 12:38

    Live and learn — if we survive.

    We will survive. The idea that we won’t is foolish scare-mongering. Not even China, with their gazillions of people, could successfully stage an invasion and conquer our country. We need to always keep this in perspective, and stop treating the Islamists as a power that they are not. Is a nation of pioneers really scared of long-bearded cavemen? If so, it says more about us, than it does about them. And this unwarranted fear has done more to reduce our liberties at home than anything else during my lifetime. Freemen are brave. Subjects live in fear, needing their masters to save them. Received an airport molestation lately?

    There is no way of knowing how all this will all turn out in Egypt. We can whine about Islamists taking over, or be grateful the Egyptian people have a shot at some freedom. Mubarak is an evil tyrant with a special place reserved in hell. I can no more support him than I could FDR’s buddy Stalin.

    The events in Egypt should give us pause about our failed foreign policy, after all, how can any red-blooded American bear witness to the atrocities carried out by Mubarak’s police against the People, using weapons paid for by US taxpayers, without feeling incredible guilt and remorse? Or decry Mubarak’s “internet kill switch” when there is a bipartisan effort to do the same in our once “land of the free”?

    I pray not for the false god of democracy in Egypt, but for peace, liberty and freedom. I pray that this helps more Americans to see the folly of government too, that it cannot create miracles at home or abroad, and shouldn’t be expected to do so. Pray for the People, not for those who wield power, for there is no virtue in power … pray for peace.

  9. bobbelvedere permalink*
    31 January 2011 @ 17:18 17:18

    TheCL:

    -I speak of nuclear/biological war. The Mohammedins are too smart to invade in the conventional sense. Why should they? They’ve enjoyed great success in Britain and Europe doing it via immigration. None of this is ‘foolish scare-mongering’. Right Reason influenced by Reality must trump ideology – which is the product of the sterile laboratories of the minds of it’s champions and where grows the fetid cultures that are the ideologues utopian ideas. The facts of life are Conservative.

    -The reality has to be faced that most of the peoples of the non-Western nations are not ready to handle representative government. They are especially not able to handle Democracy, which is the form of government most susceptible of turning Fascist. What has Democracy gotten us in Iraq? Answer: a pro-Mohammedin regime that can turn into an Iranian-like government in the blink of an eye. Even semi-Western Russia could not handle it. They should have brought back the Tsar under a constitutional monarchy. It is the peoples of the Anglosphere who can handle constitutional republics best – the Second and Third world, not so much.

    -Power exists. Better that it is in the hands of a nation like The United States or the old Great Britain.

  10. 31 January 2011 @ 21:53 21:53

    They’ve enjoyed great success in Britain and Europe doing it via immigration.

    There’s your key … radical Islam is a cultural problem. A strict adherence to natural law would negate sharia in America, but we’ve sadly thrown that beautiful doctrine away. Inalienable rights and sharia can’t exist in the same space.

    I will win the lotto long before the Islamists carry out a nuclear/biological war against the United States. You and I will be long dead before it ever happens too. I say that with one caveat though, we stop blanking with their countries. Intervention abroad works like intervention at home. It. Fails. Miserably. This is a fact of life. Read what Russell Kirk (‘war for an oilcan’) had to say about messin’ with the Middle East (particularly Iraq). He was right, predicted 9/11, and now we’re paying the price for not listening to him (and Weaver, and Nisbet, etc).

    Iraq? We shouldn’t have messed with them either. We prop-up tyrannical regimes, who eventually blow up in our face, then we send our brothers and sisters overseas to die in hopes of fixing it. We are not gods who can manage the world. We’re mere mortals who can barely manage our individual lives.

    What has democracy brought us in the United States? The old USSR’s police state, Mussolini’s fascist economy, Marx’s central bank, and $202 trillion in debt (GAAP accounting). Democracy is a false idol – the god that (repeatedly) failed.

    I miss King George III … he was a radical anarchist compared to the federal leviathan we have now.

    PS – Bob, I’m sorry if I’m too brash at times. I was a stockbroker for 15 years. That’s our style. 😯

Trackbacks

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